Mood of the Nation Surveys and India’s Prime Ministerial Landscape (2004–2025)
Public sentiment in a democracy is a powerful force, often shaping the trajectory of leadership. One of the most significant indicators of this sentiment in India has been the “Mood of the Nation” (MOTN) surveys, conducted periodically by reputed agencies like India Today, CVoter, and Lokniti-CSDS. These surveys have tracked public perception on governance, leadership, and political preferences. When viewed through the lens of Prime Ministership from 2004 to 2025, these surveys offer a compelling narrative of India’s political evolution—from coalition era fragility to the consolidation of strong leadership.
I. 2004–2009: Dr. Manmohan Singh’s First Term and UPA-I
In 2004, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) came to power unexpectedly, with Dr. Manmohan Singh assuming the Prime Minister’s chair, largely seen as a technocrat backed by Congress President Sonia Gandhi. The MOTN surveys during this period revealed a nuanced picture. While Singh was respected for his integrity and intellect, he lacked mass appeal and charisma. Interestingly, even as Prime Minister, he was often overshadowed in popularity polls by Sonia Gandhi, who was perceived as the real power behind the throne.
The surveys during these years showed moderate satisfaction with governance, largely driven by economic growth, rural welfare schemes like MGNREGA, and political stability. However, in terms of leadership preference, Singh consistently trailed behind veterans like Atal Bihari Vajpayee (even post-retirement) and L.K. Advani. His lack of oratory and public connect kept his personal popularity muted.
II. 2009–2014: Declining Confidence During UPA-II
Dr. Singh’s second term marked a visible decline in public trust, a shift clearly captured in MOTN surveys. This phase was marred by large-scale corruption scandals—the 2G spectrum scam, Commonwealth Games irregularities, and Coalgate—which significantly eroded the credibility of the UPA government. MOTN surveys showed a steady fall in governance ratings and a rising public perception of indecisiveness and a lack of control over the administration.
By 2012–2013, these surveys began reflecting a tectonic shift. Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, started emerging as a popular national figure. While Rahul Gandhi remained Congress’s choice, he fared poorly in MOTN PM preference polls. The growing frustration with corruption, inflation, and administrative paralysis led the public to desire a stronger and more assertive leadership, something Modi was increasingly seen to embody.
III. 2014–2019: Narendra Modi and the Era of Assertive Leadership
The 2014 general elections were a watershed moment in India’s political history. For the first time in three decades, a single party, the BJP, secured a majority on its own, with Narendra Modi becoming Prime Minister. MOTN surveys post-2014 reflected a dramatic change in the public mood. Modi’s approval ratings surged, often exceeding 60%. His image as a decisive, incorruptible leader resonated deeply with the electorate.
The surveys during this term captured widespread support for Modi-led initiatives—Swachh Bharat, Jan Dhan Yojana, Digital India, and the surgical strikes against Pakistan following the Uri attack in 2016. Even demonetization, despite its economic disruptions, was supported by a significant section of the public, as captured in MOTN sentiment analysis.
Moreover, Modi’s dominance was also due to the absence of a strong opposition. Rahul Gandhi’s persistent failure to connect with the masses ensured that Modi remained unchallenged in leadership preference polls throughout this term.
IV. 2019–2024: Consolidation of Popularity Despite Challenges
The 2019 elections reinforced Modi’s popularity. MOTN surveys leading up to and following the elections continued to show him as the preferred Prime Minister with a large margin. His government’s tough stance on national security, especially after the Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot airstrikes, further cemented his image as a nationalist leader.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, while many global leaders witnessed a dip in approval, Modi’s ratings remained exceptionally high. Surveys conducted in mid-2020 showed over 70% approval for his handling of the pandemic, including the lockdown, free food grain distribution, and the ambitious vaccination campaign. Public welfare schemes like PM Garib Kalyan Yojana and direct cash transfers were also appreciated, helping the government retain popularity amid economic downturn.
The MOTN surveys reflected that despite issues like unemployment and inflation, Modi’s leadership remained largely unchallenged. Alternative leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, or even Priyanka Gandhi Vadra occasionally emerged in regional surveys, but none posed a consistent national challenge.
V. 2024–2025: A Third Term and Continued Public Support
As India transitioned into another election cycle in 2024, the MOTN surveys indicated that the national mood continued to favor continuity over change. Narendra Modi remained the undisputed top choice for Prime Minister in these polls, with approval ratings between 60–65%. The public’s perception of Modi as the architect of a “New India”—assertive, development-oriented, and rooted in cultural identity—remained strong.
While opposition parties attempted to forge alliances and highlight issues like price rise and democratic backsliding, they failed to dent Modi’s popularity in any meaningful way. The BJP’s narrative of nationalism, strong leadership, and welfare outreach proved electorally resilient, a fact mirrored in post-election MOTN polls of 2025.
Notably, these surveys also reflect a generational endorsement of Modi, with a significant portion of youth and first-time voters seeing him as a transformative leader. The contrast with earlier coalition-era Prime Ministers, who lacked popular appeal or seemed weak, could not be starker.
VI. Comparative Summary: Mood of the Nation and PM Choices (2004–2025)
To contextualize this journey, here is a summary table derived from multiple MOTN surveys over the years:
| Year | Top PM Candidate in MOTN | Popularity (%) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Sonia Gandhi / Vajpayee (retired) | ~30% | Singh was seen as proxy PM |
| 2009 | Singh vs Advani | Singh ~25%, Advani ~28% | Singh’s clean image still held |
| 2013 | Narendra Modi | ~36% | Emerged as clear challenger |
| 2015 | Narendra Modi | ~65% | Peak post-2014 wave |
| 2019 | Narendra Modi | ~60% | National security theme |
| 2020 | Narendra Modi | ~70% | High during COVID handling |
| 2023 | Narendra Modi | ~55% | Unemployment cited but Modi still far ahead |
| 2025 | Narendra Modi | ~60–65% | PM choice remains consistent |
Conclusion
The trajectory of the Mood of the Nation surveys over the last two decades reflects not just changing public preferences, but also the transformation of Indian politics from backroom coalition compromises to a centralized, leadership-driven paradigm. While Manmohan Singh represented the era of administrative governance, Narendra Modi redefined the Prime Minister’s office as the face of decisive leadership and direct public connect. As India enters the third decade of the 21st century, the MOTN surveys continue to reaffirm Modi’s unchallenged position in the national imagination—an outcome that tells a story of evolving aspirations, collective memory, and political transformation.
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