State-Wise Fertility Rates in India: Trends, Insights, and Implications

India’s demographic landscape is undergoing a historic transformation. Once known for its rapid population growth, the country is now experiencing a steady decline in fertility rates. According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), conducted between 2019 and 2021, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — has fallen to 2.0. This is below the replacement level of 2.1, the point at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration.

While this decline is a significant milestone, the picture is far from uniform across states. India’s diversity means that fertility patterns vary dramatically between regions, influenced by economic development, literacy, healthcare access, culture, and religion.

Understanding TFR and Its Significance

The TFR is a critical demographic indicator because it shapes population growth, workforce size, and social dependency ratios. A high TFR suggests a young, growing population, while a low TFR indicates ageing demographics and potential workforce shortages. Policymakers rely on TFR trends to plan for education, healthcare, housing, and social security.

High-Fertility States: Concentrated in the North and Northeast

Five states still have TFRs above the replacement level, meaning their populations are likely to continue growing for decades:

  1. Bihar — 3.0
    Bihar remains India’s most fertile state. The high birth rate is linked to low female literacy, early marriage, and limited access to family planning services. Agriculture-based livelihoods and cultural norms valuing large families also play a role.
  2. Meghalaya — 2.91
    Despite being a matrilineal society, Meghalaya has a high fertility rate due to rural economic dependence, lower contraceptive use, and scattered healthcare access.
  3. Uttar Pradesh — 2.35
    India’s most populous state has seen improvement in fertility rates, but socio-economic challenges, especially in rural areas, keep the number above the replacement level.
  4. Jharkhand — 2.30
    Here, limited urbanization and lower female education rates contribute to larger family sizes.
  5. Manipur — 2.17
    Cultural preferences and restricted access to reproductive healthcare in remote areas sustain higher fertility.

These states share common factors: low female literacy, entrenched patriarchal or traditional family systems, high rural populations, and limited public health infrastructure. They will continue to be key contributors to India’s population growth.

Mid-Range Fertility: Close to Replacement Level

Several states have fertility rates around 2.0, meaning they are stabilizing demographically:

  • Madhya Pradesh (2.00) and Rajasthan (2.00) are in transition, with urban areas showing below-replacement fertility but rural areas still having more children.
  • Haryana (2.00) has seen rapid fertility decline, but cultural factors like son preference still influence family size.
  • Chhattisgarh (1.96) and Assam (1.90) have diverse tribal and rural populations balancing rapid urban decline with higher rural fertility.

These states represent a demographic tipping point — urbanization, education, and women’s empowerment programs are slowly shifting family size norms.

Low-Fertility States: The Majority of India

Most Indian states now have TFRs below 2.0, aligning them with trends seen in East Asia and Europe. Southern and western India dominate this category.

  • Kerala (1.80) and Tamil Nadu (1.80) were pioneers in fertility reduction, driven by universal education, strong healthcare systems, and gender empowerment.
  • Telangana (1.82) and Andhra Pradesh (1.70) continue the southern model of development-led fertility decline.
  • Karnataka (1.70) and Maharashtra (1.68) benefit from high urbanization and economic diversification.
  • Goa (1.32) and Sikkim (1.05) have among the world’s lowest fertility rates — a sign of delayed marriage, high migration, and lifestyle changes.
  • Punjab (1.63) and West Bengal (1.60) show how cultural preferences and education reduce birth rates even without extreme urbanization.
  • Himachal Pradesh (1.70), Nagaland (1.71), and Tripura (1.77) have also transitioned quickly to small-family norms.

In these states, ageing populations will eventually pose challenges for pension systems, healthcare for the elderly, and maintaining economic growth without a large youth workforce.

Union Territories: Urban Influence and Low Fertility

Union Territories such as Delhi (1.57), Chandigarh (1.39), and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (1.48) have fertility rates similar to developed nations. The urban lifestyle — characterized by high housing costs, late marriages, and dual-income households — naturally limits family size.

Regional Patterns in Fertility

  1. North India — Fertility remains high in the Gangetic plains (Bihar, UP) but is falling rapidly in states like Punjab, Himachal, and Uttarakhand.
  2. South India — Uniformly low fertility, with some states approaching East Asian levels.
  3. Northeast India — Diversity dominates: Meghalaya and Manipur are high, while Tripura and Nagaland are low.
  4. West India — States like Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Goa show low fertility with urban centers leading the decline.
  5. Central India — Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are in transition.

Drivers of Fertility Decline

  • Female Education: Strong correlation between women’s education and smaller family size.
  • Urbanization: Urban life raises living costs, delays marriage, and changes lifestyle aspirations.
  • Healthcare Access: Better reproductive healthcare and family planning services enable choice.
  • Economic Pressures: Job competition, housing constraints, and aspirations for better child quality over quantity.
  • Cultural Shifts: Changing gender roles and aspirations among youth.

Policy Implications

The divergence in fertility rates means India’s population story is not a single narrative. Policymakers must adopt region-specific strategies:

  • High-fertility states need stronger family planning programs, investments in girls’ education, and rural healthcare outreach.
  • Low-fertility states must prepare for ageing populations, encourage workforce participation, and consider incentives for childbearing if needed.
  • Migration policy will play a central role, as high-fertility states may supply the workforce for low-fertility regions.

The Future Outlook

India’s overall fertility decline suggests the country is entering a demographic stabilization phase. This could bring a “demographic dividend” — a period when the working-age population is larger than the dependent population — if jobs and skills align. However, without inclusive economic growth, this window could close without reaping benefits.

By 2035, the population of low-fertility states may start ageing rapidly, while high-fertility states continue to grow and urbanize. Balancing these two realities will be one of India’s biggest socio-economic challenges.

Conclusion

The NFHS-5 data on state-wise fertility rates highlights India’s demographic diversity. While the national average of 2.0 indicates progress, the variation from Bihar’s 3.0 to Sikkim’s 1.05 shows that the fertility transition is uneven. A “one-size-fits-all” approach will not work. Instead, India’s policymakers must craft tailored, region-specific interventions — ensuring that high-fertility states achieve sustainable growth while low-fertility states prepare for the challenges of an ageing society.

India’s demographic journey is far from over, but the direction is clear: smaller families are becoming the norm, and the social, economic, and cultural consequences will define the nation’s future.

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