Why Modi Agreeing to Ceasefire Doesn’t Make Sense ?
Why Modi Agreeing to Ceasefire Doesn’t Make Sense — Unless There’s a Bigger Strategic Plan
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is widely regarded as one of the most resolute leaders India has had in the post-independence era, especially when it comes to national security. His uncompromising stance against terrorism and commitment to strengthening India’s defense infrastructure have defined his image both domestically and internationally. From ordering the surgical strikes post-Uri attack in 2016 to the unprecedented Balakot airstrike in 2019, and overseeing the classified Operation Sindoor, Modi has consistently taken bold actions when India’s sovereignty was threatened.
So, when the Modi government recently agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC), it left many baffled. Critics and supporters alike are questioning the rationale behind this move. Has Modi gone soft on terror? Or is there something strategically far bigger in play?
Bold Responses That Defined Modi’s Leadership
Before diving into the perplexing ceasefire decision, it’s vital to revisit Modi’s legacy of bold responses.
Uri Surgical Strike (2016): After four heavily armed terrorists attacked an Indian Army base in Uri, killing 19 soldiers, Modi responded not with rhetoric but action. Within eleven days, Indian Special Forces crossed the LoC and carried out surgical strikes on terrorist launchpads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This was the first time India officially acknowledged cross-border military action, marking a seismic shift in India’s counter-terror doctrine.
Balakot Airstrike (2019): In response to the Pulwama suicide bombing that killed 40 CRPF personnel, Modi ordered airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory, targeting Jaish-e-Mohammed’s terror training camps in Balakot. This mission, executed by the Indian Air Force, was a message to both terrorists and their patrons: India will not hesitate to strike across borders when provoked.
Operation Sindoor (classified but widely speculated): Though not officially acknowledged in its entirety, Operation Sindoor is believed to be a series of covert missions to dismantle cross-border terror infrastructure and disrupt infiltration logistics. The Indian military’s precision and secrecy in such operations under Modi’s leadership underscore a clear doctrine: retaliation, not restraint.
Strengthening India’s Defence Posture
While responding to threats is crucial, Modi also prioritized long-term military preparedness. His government made several critical decisions that many predecessors hesitated to act upon due to international or political pressure.
S-400 Missile Deal with Russia: Despite severe pressure from the United States and threats of CAATSA sanctions, Modi went ahead with the procurement of the S-400 Triumf air defense system from Russia. The system significantly bolsters India’s air defense against aerial threats and ballistic missiles, giving India an edge in modern warfare. This move reflected strategic autonomy and signaled to global powers that India would prioritize its security interests above all.
Rafale Jet Induction: Amid fierce opposition and allegations of corruption from political rivals, Modi’s government ensured the induction of the Rafale fighter jets into the Indian Air Force. These aircraft drastically improved India’s offensive and defensive air capabilities, especially in contested zones like Ladakh and the LoC.
Backing Indigenous Defence Production: Modi’s emphasis on “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) has transformed India’s defence production landscape. From encouraging startups in defence-tech to streamlining DRDO projects, the focus has shifted from imports to indigenous solutions.
Akash Missile System & Drone Technology: Indigenous platforms like the Akash surface-to-air missile system have been performing well in strategic deployments, especially in the North-East and along the western border. India has also developed a credible drone and anti-drone infrastructure, which has been instrumental in thwarting cross-border drone incursions — a new front in asymmetric warfare.
The Surprise Ceasefire Agreement
Given this context, the recent agreement to observe a ceasefire along the LoC seems inconsistent with the established Modi doctrine of decisive retaliation. The agreement, announced jointly with Pakistan in a “DGMO-level” dialogue, was followed by reports of reduced firing along the LoC. The timing of the decision is particularly intriguing, considering the continued presence of terrorist camps across the border and increased infiltration attempts.
The Backlash
The announcement didn’t go down well with a large section of Modi’s support base and strategic community. Many questioned whether India was conceding moral ground or showing weakness. Social media, op-eds, and even some defence veterans raised concerns about whether this would lead to another cycle of Pakistan using peace as a smokescreen to regroup terrorist infrastructure.
Furthermore, there’s a lingering memory of how past ceasefires and peace initiatives — from Vajpayee’s Lahore visit to the 2003 LoC truce — were often used by Pakistan as cover to prepare for escalations like Kargil or the 26/11 attacks. Given this history, Modi agreeing to a ceasefire without visible systemic change from Pakistan seems out of character.
What Might Justify the Ceasefire?
Despite the confusion and backlash, there’s a possibility that Modi’s decision is rooted in a far more calculated long-term strategy. Several plausible explanations emerge:
1. Tactical Pause, Not Strategic Compromise: The ceasefire might be a tactical move to recalibrate India’s military and intelligence priorities, especially with China becoming an increasingly assertive player in the region. The recent PLA activities in Ladakh, combined with the need for better preparation in Arunachal Pradesh and the Indian Ocean Region, could warrant temporary de-escalation on the western front.
2. Diplomatic Leverage in Global Arenas: India is taking on bigger roles in international platforms like the QUAD and BRICS. Maintaining peace on the LoC, even temporarily, enhances India’s global image as a responsible regional power. It could also offer India leverage in isolating Pakistan diplomatically, especially if Pakistan violates the ceasefire yet again.
3. Internal Consolidation and Elections: With upcoming state elections and a potential third term in 2029, the Modi government might be trying to avoid any military distraction that could be manipulated by political opponents or foreign lobbies.
4. Covert Operations May Still Be On: Agreeing to a ceasefire on paper doesn’t mean India has stopped defending its borders or conducting quiet missions. Given Modi’s track record, it’s entirely possible that covert operations — like those akin to Operation Sindoor — continue under the radar, with plausible deniability maintained at the diplomatic level.
Conclusion: A Bigger Game at Play?
Narendra Modi has never been known to bow under pressure. His decisions to buy S-400s despite U.S. resistance, induct Rafale jets amid political storms, and promote indigenous defense production in a landscape long dominated by imports, are all testament to that.
Given this background, the ceasefire with Pakistan seems counterintuitive. But with Modi, actions often carry layered intent. Perhaps this ceasefire is not about softening India’s stance, but about strengthening it through a multidimensional strategy — involving covert pressure, international diplomacy, and preparation for a more complex battlefield that spans cyberspace, drones, and 5G warfare.
The backlash from his core base is understandable, but dismissing the ceasefire as a mere concession might be premature. As history has shown, Modi often moves pieces long before the endgame becomes visible to the public. And perhaps, this is one of those moments where what seems like a retreat is merely the silence before a bigger strike — in strategy, economy, or geopolitics.
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